Twitter lots of noise for a few tweets

This tool is obviously the talk of the town. For some it’s a real gem and for others, it remains a complete mystery. That’s why we’ve decided to launch a Twitter debate this month with a series of articles. I really think we’re making too much of a fuss about Twitter right now so I say "nay"; but I do recommend you read the article by Jean-François Renaud, a Twitter fan who has some good things to say about it...

Twitter continues to be a hit among bloggers and geeks. With appearances on Oprah and over 48 million dollars worth of free press coverage over the past few months, Twitter has managed to increase its user base and reach a more mainstream audience. The fact is however that Twitter rapidly rose to fame and the question many are asking is, will Twitter be able to keep up the pace or has it already played all of its cards. It would also appear that many big players have decided that Twitter shouldn’t be a part of their “select circle". Thus, Facebook recently acquired Friendfeed and introduced new features copied from Twitter such as a real-time search and Facebook Lite. As for Google, it’s indexing its content faster than ever in an effort to pull the rug from under the Twitter’s real-time search feature. Even Techcrunch has been causing Twitter a few headaches recently by publishing a significant volume of confidential memos originating from the Inbox of a Twitter executive.

In short, Twitter can expect a bumpy ride over the next few months (unless Google buys them out of course). Although there are hundreds of positive case studies on the use of Twitter and Twitter may just find a revenue model one of these days, I truly feel there’s currently much ado about so few tweets.

Here are a few statistics to ponder
In the United States, the most recent Forrester statistics show that 3% of Americans use Twitter on a regular basis and that 4% follow other users’ updates without actually having tweeted themselves. In terms of brands, 2% of American adults claim to follow a brand name on Twitter. Finally, 85% don’t use the service at all In Canada, 1.45% are frequent users and 26% have heard of the service. That’s far more than in Quebec where only 7% of Internet users are familiar with Twitter. As for Twitter users, 85.3% generate less than one tweet a day and 8.7% of tweets create value.

In sum, these statistics actually aren’t that bad for a service that only recently celebrated its first anniversary. However, does a social network with such an insignificant critical mass deserve to be the center of so much attention? By putting so much energy into Twitter, you tend to neglect the other social networks (blogs, forums, video sites, etc.) in which your brand/products are being discussed by customers who are influencers/ambassadors. We also lose sight of other web marketing approaches that, day after day, prove to be effective and offer a good ROI.

Twitter (and microblogging) is currently at the peak of inflated expectations According to Gartner, microblogging is still close to the peak of inflated expectations as seen by the graph below.

This doesn’t mean that Twitter and microblogging are doomed but rather, we’re in an era in which we tend to overestimate the abilities of tools like these. In this regard, I would compare Twitter to Second Life (please, don’t quote me out of context ...). About 2 years ago, many thought the Web would now revolve around Second Life and 3D. In 2009, that’s not quite the case: Second Life fell from its pedestal (although its revenue was something to be envious of), but several 3D gaming/socialization environments are making a profit and could become increasingly important on the Web over the next few years. Not so long ago, Second Life (3D Web) was what Twitter (microblogging) is today. Microblogging will continue to mature, but will it do so via Twitter?

Microblogging for all ... why not?
Is there a reason why all microblogging goes through Twitter? Of course there is! They’ve developed an API and thousands of applications are now part of the Twitter universe. But wouldn’t it be more efficient to decentralize microblogging, something along the lines of RSS feeds.

Facebook could very well be the death of Twitter
While Twitter is just starting to make a name for itself among the public, Facebook has been launching repeated attacks on Twitter. Several of Twitter’s added values no longer exist and the service will need to rapidly reinvent itself if the general public (its goal is 1 billion members by 2013) is to go to the trouble of opening an account and updating Twitter as well as Facebook. It goes without saying that, like most web marketing professionals, we have no trouble updating a status on Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin, etc. But when you mention Twitter to your friends (those who know what it is of course), are they interested in this kind of tool or are they happy with what Facebook and the new Facebook lite has to offer?

With regard to searches, it must be said that one of Twitter’s cutting edges is the ability to search all discussions, not just those posted by your friends. Facebook probably won’t be competing with Twitter anytime soon on this front as it doesn’t want its content indexed by Google. Facebook may have the weapons to cause Twitter great harm, but it may never use them.

And in the meantime?
So now that I’ve made enemies with the entire blogosphere, I am going suggest that certain organizations get to work on Twitter. Indeed, for many organizations it would be a huge mistake to miss the boat. The following come to mind. Organizations that:

• want to keep watch on trends and use Twitter as one of their sources.
• often appear on Twitter (their brands, products, etc.)
• have content to promote and a customer/influencer base that could be interested in receiving that content and sharing it with their networks.
• are able to assess the impact of a tool like Twitter and invest the energy needed.

And what do you think? Do you agree with me or Jean-Francois? Join the discussion here.